In 2009-10, the Spartans started the season with high expectations, a top five ranking, co-favorites in the Big Ten and a ton of returning talent. While they struggled along for much of the season, come April, they were right there were Tom Izzo often gets his team: the Final Four. As the Spartans look ahead to 2010-11, there are a lot of the same high expectations but still enough question marks to make it interesting. Senior point guard Kalin Lucas will have to recover from the torn Achilles’ he suffered in the Tournament and junior power forward Delvon Roe will undergo another offseason knee surgery. But assuming they can both get over their health hurdles, they will again be surrounded by some talented players.
Junior guard Korie Lucious will likely fill Lucas’ shoes at the point if Lucas is not ready to go at the start of the season, and will spell Lucas when he does return to the lineup. Seniors Chris Allen and Durrell Summers will start at the two and the three, with junior Austin Thornton and incoming freshmen Russell Byrd and Keith Appling providing backcourt depth. Byrd is a shooter on the wing, while Appling is more of a penetrating scoring guard, who could run some point from time to time if needed.
Up front, if Roe ever does return to full health, he’ll be a monster on a nationals scale: a scarily athletic, smart and tenacious front court player with skills that he has only barely begun to show. Junior Draymond Green is another skilled front court player, who may slide into the starting lineup replacing the departed Raymar Morgan, or could continue to play the sixth-man role off the bench. Derrick Nix may again get the starting nod at the center position in his sophomore year, but will likely get more than the just eight minutes per game he saw as a freshman. Likewise, fellow sophomore Garrick Sherman should see an uptick in minutes, and knowing Izzo, senior center Tom Herzog will also get some minutes here and there. All three of those players will have to fight for minutes, however, as reinforcements arrive in the shape of 6-10 freshman center Adreian Payne, a raw physical specimen, and 6-9 freshman big man Alex Gauna, a versatile post-player.
Certainly Michigan State will be one of the Final Four favorites again next year, and depending on the NBA draft decisions of some of Purdue’s key players, will either be the sole favorite in the Big Ten or the co-favorite with the Boilermakers. But, as has been their custom, don’t expect Izzo and the Spartans to really round into form until March, when they should be as tough an out as ever.
After the Wolverines got to the NCAA tournament for the first time in 11 years following John Bielein’s second year in Ann Arbor, there was a lot of optimism around the 09-10 Michigan basketball season. But after struggling through their non-conference portion of the schedule, the Wolverines were never able to string more than a couple victories together and finished under .500 on the season and out of any postseason tournament plans. And now, with leading scorer and second-leading rebounder Manny Harris headed to the NBA draft a year early and second-leading scorer and leading rebounder DeShawn Sims graduating, Bielein’s team will have to start over from scratch.
The leading returning scorer on the roster is junior swing Zack Novak, a guy who is a pretty perfect fit in this offense: a scrapper, a shooter, an excellent passer and surprising finishing ability. The backcourt will likely be some combination of sophomore point Darius Morris and junior off-guards Laval Lucas-Perry and Stu Douglass, both little more than shooters. Morris is a good penetrating point guard that can get out of control at times; he is also a terrible outside shooter (just 18% on 39 attempts from behind the arc). It is possible all three of those guys will start in the backcourt, although that would leave the Wolverines tremendously undersized. Skinny sophomore shooter Matt Vogrich will also get some minutes in the backcourt, as will incoming shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr., an excellent shooter who Bielein would love to see earn major minutes immediately. Sophomore guard Eso Akunne will only see time when the Wolverines dig deep into their bench.
Up front, alongside Novak, Bielein has several unproven big men. Jordan Morgan and Blake McLimans both will be coming off their redshirt years with four years of eligibility remaining, and they will compete for time with incoming freshman fours Evan Smotrycz and Jon Horford. Smotrycz is a versatile four who has been compared to guys like Kyle Singler and Gordon Hayward in the type of game he plays: handles, rebounds, strokes it from range. Horford, brother of former Florida star Al Horford remains a project, but is an athletically gifted big man. Ideally, two of those four will earn starting spots alongside Novak and two guards. Senior Anthony Wright will spell Novak from time to time at the three.
While the talent level in Ann Arbor has seemingly dipped, Harris and Sims were players that Bielein inherited from the previous coaching staff and were made to fit into his system. Most of the remaining players on the Michigan roster belong to this coaching staff, so we’ll get the first chance to see the vaunted Bielein system in action with his own recruits playing the primary role. However, given the youth of the squad, especially in the front court, it would seem that Wolverine basketball is going to take another little dip in the Big Ten standings before starting back up again.
The first few days of the Fran McCaffrey era in Iowa City have been a little rough, to say the least. Second-leading returning scorer Aaron Fuller announced that he would be continuing his basketball career at another program, and two of the four committed recruits to the Hawkeyes (guard Ben Brust and forward Cody Larson) both asked for, and received, releases from their letters of intent. Due to Big Ten rules, neither will be eligible for scholarships from other Big Ten schools, so both are still at least keeping the option of recommitting to Iowa open thus far. Given that McCaffrey was already taking over a team that won just ten games last year and has finished 10th in the conference two years running, a tough job just got a little tougher.
What McCaffrey does have returning is some experience: three returnees who started all 32 Hawkeye games last year: junior off-guard and leading returning scorer Matt Gatens, sophomore point guard Cully Payne and junior power forward Jarryd Cole. Add to that mix sophomore swingman Eric May, who took over a starting position after swingman Anthony Tucker was suspended and eventually left school following a DUI arrest. And, sophomore center Brennan Cougill, who got seven starts throughout the season, and you have the likely starting five. Payne is a scrappy, undersized and underathletic point and his backcourt mate Gatens is a bomber, both of whom shoot similar percentages from the field (both shoot around 37% from the field and 31% from behind the arc) that will need to be improved for Iowa to improve. Up front, Cole is a grinder down low, Cougill is a pick-and-pop type of center, and May is a versatile small forward that can step out and shoot the three, rebound well and is the team’s best defender.
And, that’s the good news. Beyond that, there is almost no depth here. Center Andrew Brommer returns for his junior year, but he is little more than a warm body. It is not expected that John Lickliter, walk-on son of deposed head coach Todd Lickliter, will return to the team in the backup point role he filled last year. The two recruits who remained committed to the Hawkeyes, off-guard Roy Marble, Jr. (son of the Hawkeye legend and all-time leading scorer) and power forward Zach McCabe will likely be thrust into big roles as soon as they step on campus. Then, there’s redshirt junior forward Devon Archie, a JuCo transfer before last season who didn’t play a minute do to a shoulder injury and then pneumonia. He is a big interior defender and rebounder who could potentially get some serious minutes up front, or at the very least spelling Cole, a player to whom he is somewhat similar.
McCaffrey will get a pass in his first season in Iowa, regardless of what happens, so at this point if 10-11 goes to hell as it looks like it could, he had better at least have a plan for improvement for 11-12. And, given that this is an incredibly young roster he’s got returning (zero seniors, four juniors), there is plenty of room for these individuals to improve, but for the Hawkeyes to make any serious headway in the Big Ten, they’ll need tostart bringing in some new recruits. Convincing Larson and Brust to stick with the Hawkeyes would be a good first step.
After a year in basketball purgatory, the Hoosiers started the long trek back up the Big Ten standings. Sure, 4-14 in conference is not going to remind anybody of the glory days of Bob Knight, or even Mike Davis, but there was definite improvement over the 08-09 iteration of the IU squad. Nevertheless, while head coach Tom Crean was given a pass in his first year due to the necessary complete reconstruction of the program, those Indiana fans aren’t used to losing and won’t remain patient long, as this year proved.
The 10-11 version of the Hoosiers will not look a whole lot different than last year’s, but hopefully shooting guard Maurice Creek will fully recover from the knee injury that robbed him of the final 19 games of his freshman season, after having led IU in scoring through the first 12 games. Creek is a high-percentage scorer, a guy that can drop 31 on Kentucky as he did as a freshman while still shooting high percentages from all over (53% from the field, 45% from 3-pt and 76% from the line – a number which will likely improve over his career) and assuming a full recovery will again be the go-to scorer for the Hoosiers. Alongside him in Crean’s three-guard lineup will likely be senior Jeremiah Rivers and junior Verdell Jones. After Creek’s injury, Jones was as close to a clutch performer as Indiana had and was a capable scorer, despite shooting significantly lower percentages than Creek. Rivers, a transfer from Georgetown, was a bit of a disappointment for Crean’s squad. He has all the tools you look for in a big guard his size – athletic, good quickness, finishing ability, a nice jumper, good on-ball defense, penetration, passing – but has never been able to put all of those tools together to form a complete game; there is just no excuse for Rivers averaging just six point per game in over 28 minutes of playing time. Depth in the backcourt will come from sophomore point Jordan Hulls, incoming freshman Victor Oladipo, junior sharp-shooter Matt Roth and junior scrapper Daniel Moore.
Up front, Christian Watford started every game in his freshman season with the Hoosiers and will be a vital cog in the Hoosiers’ 10-11 plans. He is a bit undersized at the four, but moves well, can play out of the post, blocks some shots and is the best rebounder on the team. Junior Tom Pritchard will likely start alongside Watford up front, and he is a capable is unspectacular post-man. Ideally for Crean, either Derek Elston, Bobby Capobianco or Bawa Muniru would step up and claim, or at least challenge for, that fifth starting spot. None of the those three showed any type of consistent offensive games in their freshman seasons, but Elston and Capobianco may turn out to be better rebounders than Pritchard. Muniru, on the other hand, is an athletic freak, but is so raw that is may be another year, or even two, before the guy sees any type of significant minutes. Will Sheehey is a 6-6 incoming freshman who may get a chance to spell Watford a bit as an undersized four.
Best case scenario in Bloomington next season is Creek getting back to form early in the season, Rivers putting his considerable talents together for his senior season, Watford bulking up a bit and the front-line depth taking a step forward, allowing the Hoosiers to creep toward .500 in conference play. Them actually getting there in 10-11 still seems unlikely, however.
This is the year and the roster that Bruce Weber and his Illinois program have been building to, ever since the rebuilding project following the ’05 run to the national championship game. All major contributors will likely return (Mike Davis and Demetri McCamey have both entered their names in the NBA Draft, but neither has hired an agent and both should return to school for their senior seasons), last year’s very good recruiting class has a year of experience and three new highly-regarded recruits join them and a roster loaded with six seniors. Last year’s Illini team fell just outside of the tournament; this year’s team, and likely the team for the near future, should be able to skate in on talent alone.
Assuming Davis and McCamey indeed pull their names out of the draft before May 8th, the Illini should return their entire starting five from 09-10. McCamey is the mercurial point guard, very talented but with some personality flaws that are likely accelerating coach Weber’s aging process. He is prone to bad shots at time, can get a little out of control and when things don’t go well for him he doesn’t always play with a sense of urgency. While he was better on all of those fronts last year than he was the year before, he still had some meltdowns as the season progressed, and he’ll need to mature in those areas in order to help his team make the most of its talent. Davis, likewise, is a talented but flawed player. At 6-9, Davis has a soft touch on his jumper and is a skilled shot-maker around the hoop. He is a very good rebounder and can block a few shots, but often shies away from physical play, a nearly fatal fault in the Big Ten. Davis’ soft play is exacerbated by the fact that he plays alongside a center, Mike Tisdale, who is more of a face-up jump-shooter than a back-to-the-basket post, leaving Illinois without a true grinder inside.
Both D.J. Richardson and Brandon Paul will return for their sophomore season with experience as starters. Richardson started all but one of the Illini games while Paul started in 14 games as freshmen. Paul is an athletic slashing two-guard, while Richardson is a combo-guard than can score in a variety of ways. Both, however, shot under 40% from the field last year and each will need to significantly increase that percentage. When Paul did not start, that role went to Bill Cole, a long and lanky swingman who is a savvy player: excellent defender, good passer, three-point range and plenty of hustle.
However, it is quite possible that the fifth starting spot will not go to Cole or to Paul, but to incoming freshman swing Jereme Richmond, a fine athletic specimen that will give their frontline more of the physicality it needs. The rest of the freshman class should see playing time, but it is Richmond who will play the biggest role immediately. Meyers Leonard is a 6-11 center who, much like Davis and Tisdale, is more comfortable facing the basket and is more of a finesse big than a power guy. The final member of the class is off-guard Crandall Head, brother of former Illini guard Luther Head. He has a similar skillset to his brother, but will need to improve his shooting accuracy before he has a chance to take minutes away from either Richardson or Paul.
Rounding out the roster are players like sophomore power forward Tyler Griffey, a good interior player who will continue to get minutes through his Illini career, and senior guard Jeff Jordan, a quietly effective guard and the son of some schmuck you’ve probably never heard of. Jordan actually had the best assist-to-turnover margin on the squad and is a pretty good rebounding guard in limited minutes, although with all the talent on this team it will be interesting to see if he gets any minutes in his senior season; he may be an ideal backup point on a team loaded with off-guards.
This Illini squad is talented enough to challenge for a Big Ten title, but they’ll need to get tougher, especially in the paint, and they’ll need to get smarter, especially at the point. Those things are not out of the question, but it would require seniors to do things that they haven’t yet shown the ability to do in their previous three years. But that is sometimes exactly what seniors do.
In the past week we've gotten some good news in basketball land: NCAA tournament expanding only to 68 teams, not the 96-team scenario that would have irreparably damaged the early rounds of the tournament.While most basketball fans would certainly take 64 instead of 68, 68 is such a huge relief after having been faced with 96, that it counts as good news.
Now, there's the issue of what's going to happen with Big Ten expansion and all that it might entail. I've got an article that posted today at Rush the Court that deals with that issues, and to sum it up: it ain't pretty.
Other updates, dealing with some of the ACC previews I posted below: Kyle Singler staying at Duke for his senior season, Solomon Alabi leaving Florida State for the NBA. Singler's return cements Duke as the ACC favorite, the preseason #1 and the early favorite to repeat as NCAA champion. Alabi's departure significantly hurts FSU's outlook and I can no longer get behind them as the #2 pick in the ACC. I would drop them out of the second tier of ACC teams and put them in that big third tier of teams with Maryland, NC State, Clemson, Wake Forest and Boston College.
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